Wednesday, August 27, 2014

Official Basketball schedule released

Aside from the coaching change the biggest difference between last year's basketball season and this one will be the schedule. Although the previous staff's commitments to the Coaches vs Cancer games and the Puerto Rico Tip-off could not be changed, the rest of the non-conference schedule is easier. BC plays Harvard and Providence as usual, but also takes it easier with Marist, Maine and UMass-Lowell. The new ACC's rotations kick in too. We get Louisville for the first time as a conference foe and Pitt comes back to Conte.

Brian noted the abundance of 9 PM starts, but to me that is a non-issue. Attendance is going to be terrible this year regardless of when the games are played. Christian understands this but he's not going to go out and shake every student's hand to get them to games. His marketing plan is about winning basketball. TV dictates so much, we are going to see 9 PM starts from here to eternity. It is up to BC to provide winning basketball and rethink the capacity and configuration of Conte so that it is right-sized for the demand. We play Notre Dame, Syracuse and UNC in heart of the season at home. If we are playing good basketball and near .500, I think crowds will be decent.

Scheduling undid last year. That won't be the case this year. Confidence means a lot in basketball. I hope fattening up on the non-conference teams makes us more competitive come ACC play.

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Depth Chart for UMass

BC released the official Depth Chart for the UMass game. Nothing really surprised as most of these names had been floating around the various message boards for days.

The mild surprise based on last season is Duggan starting over Daniels. But it was rumored through the summer that Duggan was playing very well. I am sure both will see plenty of action. Once you see it on paper, you realize how big our starting WRs are. I imagine they will be blocking often.

What is not listed who else will get on the field when we go with Jumbo packages. Last year Betancourt was usually the first one off the bench.

The final thought that hit me as I looked at the page, was how much of the team is already Addazio's. We clearly pay attention to the attrition and turnover, but seeing the roster really hits it home.


Tuesday, August 26, 2014

Season Prediction Part III: what will happen

Last year BC overachieved. Some of that was luck, but a lot of it was coaching. I felt Addazio played to his strengths while still instilling his values and philosophies. While putting that sort of imprint on a team doesn't guarantee permanent success, I do think it will serve BC well as he navigates through his second season. We are also experienced in a few places that can mask a lot of issues (QB and OLine). Yet I am still a realist. I don't think we will win the ACC, but I do think we go bowling again. It won't be easy, but my gut tells me it will still be fun.

Here are my official predictions for the season.

What Will Happen

at UMass. Win. We pound them and I also think Don Brown will know just what to do against his old buddy Whipple.

Pitt. Win. I think this will be one of the toughest games of our peer programs. But I think we can steal a win at home against a solid Pitt team.

USC. Loss. USC doesn't smother the offense again, but we still cannot overcome their talent advantages.

Maine. Win. Maine might be a decent FCS team, but we are not going to lose this game.

Colorado State. Win. I don't like the matchup against CSU. I still think we win, but it won't be pretty.

at NC State. Loss. NC State should be much better this season. I also think the first road game of the season will be a challenge.

Clemson. Loss. I fear that some of the games we kept close last year won't be close this season. 

at Wake Forest. Win. Wake will have trouble stopping our rushing attack and BC nears bowl eligibility. 

at Virginia Tech. Loss. I don't think Virginia Tech is all that good, but I do think road wins will be tough to come by this year.

Louisville. Loss. This is the toughest part of the season. The defense struggles and the rest of the schedule looks daunting. 

at Florida State. Loss. This is ugly. All of us are wondering if Addazio can rally the guys in the final week.

Syracuse. Win. Another tough, close game. BC pulls it out to get to six wins and become bowl eligible.

6-6 (4-4) leaves BC eligible for bowls but totally unwanted. ESPN and the ACC force us on the Bitcoin Bowl in Tampa. To offset the lack of BC tickets, the bowl selects USF as our opponent. It becomes a virtual road game but that doesn't bother our hardened team. We win a close game and finish 7-6. It is not a historic BC season but it sets the right tone for recruiting and Addazio's future. 

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Monday, August 25, 2014

Captains announced and other links

BC announced their 2014 Captains. They are Josh Bordner, Sean Duggan, Andy Gallik and Dominique Williams. It is an interesting collection and I always appreciate when it is not the best players elected captain (other than Gallik, I wouldn't say the others are obvious choices based on past performance). I hope that the honor means that the team thinks these guys are ready for a big season or that they are putting thought into the vote and electing true examples for team leadership. Or hopefully both and these captain are good guys ready to have great seasons. I know that the tradition and legacy is drilled into these players, so I am sure they are all honored.

Tim Joy injured his knee and will miss the entire season. Fortunately we have depth at Linebacker. I wish him a full recovery and hopefully he can redshirt and play two more years.

UMass released their depth chart for the game. BC's is floating out on message boards, but the official chart has yet to be released.

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Season Prediction Part II: best case scenario

Things don't always go wrong. Sometimes every bounce can go your way and you end up overachieving. I don't feel that way this year, but who knows? Maybe things will go our way. If Murphy has a big season and if the defense improves as Brown's units do in Year 2, we might be the surprise team of the ACC. I don't think this will happen, but it could.

Best Case Scenario

at UMass. Win. Not even close. BC controls and the offense looks great without Andre Williams.

Pitt. Win. This is a close game, but BC creates a few turnovers that kill Pitt drives.

USC. Win. This is a signature win for the season and it is early. BC catches USC a bit jetlagged and benefits from playing them a week after Stanford. We pound away and win by a healthy margin.

Maine. Win. The backups play and BC is off to a 4-0 start. Everyone is pumped.

Colorado State. Win. Not a great game, but another win. BC enters the Top 25.

at NC State. Win. Like CSU, this is another game where BC does not play particularly well, but still escapes with the win. It is the luck I hoped for plus a good rushing attack.

Clemson. Loss. The Dream Season bubble bursts as we lose our first game.

at Wake Forest. Win. Wake is bad and I think we beat them in any type of season.

at Virginia Tech. Win. Although this is not a great Hokie squad, the win gets BC some more respect and gets us back into the Top 25.

Louisville. Loss. But then we fall right out again as a solid Louisville team puts up big numbers on our Defense.

at Florida State. Loss. The Champs are cruising and the game is not close. With the loss we are eliminated from the Division title.

Syracuse. Win. A solid end to the regular season. We avenge last season's heartbreaker.

The 9-3 (5-3) surprises everyone including most Bowl Committees. No one wants us but we cannot slip down too far due to our 5-3 ACC record. We end up in the Sun Bowl playing Stanford. We cap off the season with another upset win and finish with a 10-3 record and a Top 25 ranking. It is a huge accomplishment and has everyone on the bandwagon for the Addazio era.

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Sunday, August 24, 2014

Season Prediction Part I: worst case scenario

I couldn't be more excited about the season. I think Addazio did a good job of plugging holes and I think we can be competitive with most of our opponents. However, things don't always play out that way. This is my annual tradition of forecasting a season that goes off the rails. As a reminder, I don't think this will happen and I will make an official prediction later in the week. But if a few things go wrong, this is how the season could play out.

Worst Case Scenario

at UMass. Win. I am sure Whipple has extra motivation for this game, but that can't cover the flaws in his roster. It is closer than the spread, but BC wins.

Pitt. Loss. Pitt does the things we want to do, only they do them better. It is not a high scoring game, because both teams spend a lot of time running, but BC cannot keep it close. 

USC. Loss. Last year we played them amidst the chaos of Lane Kiffin...and it wasn't close. This year they are more than ready and the difference in talent is more noticeable.

Maine. Win. Like UMass, this isn't pretty but we do enough right to control the game and lock up a win.

Colorado State. Loss. One of the turning points between an okay season and a bad one. BC let's this game slip away and leaves us wondering if there is a guaranteed third win on the schedule.

at NC State. Loss. Our first true road game of the season and it does not go well. Murphy struggles and we start to wonder if it is time to play one of the freshmen.

Clemson. Loss. Remember the close, physical game at Clemson last year? So does Clemson. They take us seriously from the start and never allow a big play.

at Wake Forest. Win. Wake has a lot of problems and holes in their roster. Addazio still does enough to rally the boys and get an ACC road win. 

at Virginia Tech. Loss. Typical BC game in Blacksburg. We play hard but the big plays all go their way and we come out with a loss.

Louisville. Loss. Their offense destroys our defense as the heavy blitzing just leads to big plays.

at Florida State. Loss. At this point the Seminoles are cruising and looking to impress Committee members. They hang 50 on us.

Syracuse. Loss. I think this could be another close game that doesn't go our way again.

Even at 3-9, no one is calling for Addazio's head. Most understand this is a transition year. In this case, it leads to a few more transfers and another big recruiting class. But it does reset expectations for 2015 and puts pressure on the young guys to contribute. As I said, I am confident this won't happen...but it could. 

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Saturday, August 23, 2014

Brown signs and serves as model for Christian recruiting

As expected former Southern Miss wing Aaron Brown signed with BC. He's immediately eligible and will start working out with the team right away. After losing out on Terance Mann earlier in the week, locking up Brown is a good sign. Missing on Mann and getting Brown is probably a good look into Christian's future.

Christian has made it clear that he's not going to overload the 2015 recruiting class with freshman. I would expect four and a maximum of five freshmen coming in next year. He'll then back fill the open scholarships with more traditional transfers and a few fifth years. This makes sense on so many fronts. It breaks the cycle of long rebuilds led by one mega class that started with the Raji-Paris-Sanders class under Skinner and continued with Donahue's first full class.

Better distributing the scholarships and adding older players should lead to a more consistent program. If we are ever going to be elite, Christian will have to land a few more players like Mann, but for now a roster of Brown types would be an improvement.

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Friday, August 22, 2014

Tweets of the Week


Thursday, August 21, 2014

Mann to FSU

Wednesday, prized recruit Terance Mann verbaled to Florida State. As a local product and one of BC's biggest targets, this is disappointing all around. Donahue worked Mann hard and the new staff kept the pressure on the Tilton School product. In fact there was gossip in the final weeks of the season that if Mann committed, it would have saved Donahue's job. In retrospect, things weren't that close.

Where does this leave Christian and Company? He now has to find more perimeter prospects. It would have been nice to close out on the best kids in New England, but there are plenty of good players out there. BC also has a ton of available scholarships, so I expect them to include a transfer or two in this recruiting class.

I am still giving Christian plenty of time. Losing out on one or two high profile guys is not the end of the world. Think of the bloggers though. Losing Terance Mann means we don't get to fill posts and twitter with tons of Field of Dreams references.

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